Abstract # 4

Blossfeld, Hans-Peter. A causal approach to interrelated family events: a cross-national comparison of cohabitation, nonmarital conception, and marriage (together with Melinda Mills). In: Globalife Working Paper Series, No. 14, Faculty of Sociology, University of Bielefeld (2000). To appear in: Canadian Journal of Population (forthcoming).

One of the most important advances brought about by life course and event history studies is the use of parallel or interdependent processes as explaining factors in transition rate models. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate a causal approach to the study of interrelated family events. Various types of interdependent processes are described first, followed by two event history perspectives: the 'system' and 'causal' approach. The authors assert that the causal approach is more appropriate from an analytical point of view as it provides a straightforward solution to simultaneity, cause-effect lags, and temporal shapes of effects. Based on comparative cross-national applications in West and East Germany, Canada, Latvia, and the Netherlands, the usefulness of the causal approach is demonstrated by analyzing two highly interdependent family processes: entry into marriage (for individuals who are in a consensual union) as the dependent process and first pregnancy/childbirth as the explaining one. Both statistical and theoretical explanations are explored emphasizing the need for conceptual reasoning.