Abstract # 2

Sommer, Thorsten. Partnership formation in a globalizing world: the impact of uncertainty in East and West Germany (together with Erik Klijzing and Melinda Mills). In: Globalife Working Paper Series, No. 09, Faculty of Sociology, University of Bielefeld (2000). Under review for publication in: European Journal of Population.

This study illustrates how the forces of globalization impact first partnership formation via the mechanism of uncertainty. Partnership formation in contemporary OECD countries includes the choice between marriage or cohabitation. The outcome of decision-making depends upon individual and macro-level factors such as past experiences, current values, perceived norms and constraints, which are simultaneously filtered through each unique institutional context. One of our central tenets is that the rising uncertainty that accompanies globalization has a direct influence on behavior. Partnerships are placed in the context of the interdependent life course domains of education and employment and operationalized into six spheres of uncertainty. Uncertainty in partnership formation materializes via the formation of more flexible unions, such as cohabitation or the decision to postpone or forgo partnerships. Due to the unique path dependent development of each country, different nations have experienced the impact of globalization in context-specific ways. The model is illustrated using longitudinal data from the German Fertility and Family Survey (FFS) of 1992, comparing the former East and West, with a preliminary analysis using the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) (Appendix A). Former East and West Germany offer a unique contrast to exemplify ‘institutional embeddedness’ or how institutions serve to filter the process of globalization that may subsequently influence life course behavior. Using event history exponential rate models, the authors illustrate that uncertainty in partnership formation differs by level of uncertainty in education and employment careers, institutional path dependence and embeddedness and is gender-specific.